Have the Best of Choices for the Soccer and Bets

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We call valuebet a bet on an event whose odds have been underestimated by the bookmaker. Of course, this type of bet does not increase your chances of winning the concerned bet, but the winning potential. To define if a bet is a value bet, you must multiply the odds of the bet by the probability (in%) that you estimate that the bet in question will be realized. If the result obtained is greater than 1, it is a valuebet. At soccerstats you will get all the information now.

Example: for a basketball game between Philadelphia and New Orleans :

  • Bookmaker X: 1.55 (Philadelphia Victory) – 13.10 (Draw) – 2.20 (New Orleans Victory)
  • The bookmaker therefore bet on a Philadelphia victory
  • Let’s say you think New Orleans has a 65% chance of winning the game.
  • Calculation of the valuebet: (odds x probability in%) / 100 = (2.20 X 65) / 100 = 1.43> 1 => it is a valuebet. 

Martingale (or Hawks method)

Martingale is a method based on mathematical probabilities. It starts from the principle that statistically we cannot always lose, and therefore that we always end up winning. Concretely, the Hawks method consists in betting on odds greater than 2, and doubling the bet in case of losing bet. The stake is doubled until the bet wins.

Example: You wish to bet on the victory of a team whose odds are fixed at 2, with a first bet of 2 euros :

  • If your team wins, you win 2 x 2 euros = 4 euros
  • If your team loses, and you apply the martingale, you must double the bet on the next match, i.e. 2 x 2 euros = 4 euros bet
  • If the bet loses again, you double the bet again: 2 x 4 euros = 8 euros bet… and so on until your bet wins
  • When your bet wins, you will be reimbursed for all losing bets, and you will have made a profit of 2 euros (or the amount you wagered at the start) 

The Kelly Criterion

The Kelly Criterion is a method which allows you to evaluate the share of your budget that you will devote to a given bet. Thanks to a simple formula, the ideal bet is determined based on the odds of the bet and the overall budget set by the bettor. The result obtained (in%) will be the maximum share of your budget that you should bet on this bet. So if you bet more than that percentage, you are taking more risks. Conversely, if you bet less, the profitability of your bet will not be optimal. If you know about Soccerstats then you will be able to have the best choices there.

Example: for a football match between Lille and Marseille:

  • Bookmaker X: 2.20 (Lille win) – 3.30 (Draw) – 3.05 (Marseille win)
  • You want to bet on a Marseille victory. The bookmaker estimates that the probability of Marseille beating Lille is 32.79% (odds of 3.05 => 100 / 3.05 = 32.79), while you think that Marseille has a 50% chance of winning.
  • Share of budget to bet (in%) = (odds x probability% – 1) / (odds – 1) x 100 = (3.05 x 50/100 – 1) / (3.05 – 1) x 100 = 0 , 53 / 2.05 x 100 = 26
  • Ideally, you should therefore devote 26% of your budget to this bet. 

If these methods maximize your chances of winning money in sports betting, keep in mind that no method can win every time. Indeed, there is always a bit of chance in sports betting.